'Avengers: Endgame' Will Top 'Avatar Twice At The Domestic Box Office This Weekend
After three weeks in domestic release, Avengers: Endgame has now earned $741 million. That puts it in a position to hit two arbitrary domestic milestones this weekend. First, it’ll probably pass the initial 2009/2010 theatrical total of James Cameron’s Avatar ($749 million) today or very early tomorrow. Second, it’ll likely pass the whole domestic total ($760 million, counting the 2010 late-summer reissue) of Avatar to become the second-biggest unadjusted domestic grosser of all time. Presuming John Wick: Chapter 3’s apparent/possible over performance (it earned about as much on Thursday as the last Mission: Impossible movie) this weekend doesn’t ding Earth’s mightiest heroes too severely, we should be looking at a $30 million fourth weekend gross, which would give Endgame a $771 million 24-day domestic total.
Beyond that, once it passes $749 million today or tomorrow, it’ll both pass the initial raw gross of Avatar and the inflation-adjusted gross of Fantasia ($74 million counting the reissues/$748 million adjusted). And if it does indeed top $771.05 million by Sunday, it’ll have passed the adjusted-for-inflation totals of The Graduate ($104.9 million in 1967/$771.04 million adjusted). Yes, there once was a time when a movie like The Graduate would sell the modern-day equivalent of $771 million worth of domestic tickets. And when glancing at various Keanu Reeves-related stats, it is just as depressing to note that even as recently as 1995 would have seen a well-reviewed but not zeitgeist-busting romantic drama like A Walk in the Woods earning the $100 million in inflation-adjusted domestic earnings.
Since Avengers: Endgame has zero chance of passing Star Wars: The Force Awakens in raw domestic earnings, the only domestic milestones left are related to inflation-adjusted grosses. That’s not nothing, as it’ll presumably pass $800 million domestic next weekend and thus pass the adjusted gross ($242million 1981/$248 million counting reissues/$797 million adjusted) of Raiders of the Lost Ark to become the 21st-biggest inflation-adjusted earner. Once it hits $814 million next weekend, it’ll be past The Lion King ($423 million counting the reissues and $803 million adjusted) and Star Wars – Episode One: The Phantom Menace ($474.5 million counting reissues/$813.7 million adjusted). Next on tap will be Jurassic Park ($402.8 million counting the reissues/$825.9 million adjusted) and Return of the Jedi ($309 million with reissues/$848 million adjusted).
Unless it legs up a little better, that could be it. As noted earlier, if it continues to leg out like Captain America: Civil War, it’ll end up with around $850 million domestic, placing it at 15th place on the adjusted-for-inflation list. And if it legs like Avengers: Age of Ultron, it’ll end up with around $895 million. That’ll put it past Avatar ($760 million/$877 million), Ben-Hur ($74.4 million/$883 million) and The Empire Strikes Back ($290.4 million/$884.6 million). That’ll leave it in 13th place among all inflation-adjusted grossers. And yes, if it ends up closer to $900 million than $850 million, a reissue could put it past the $900 million mark and thus past 101 Dalmatians ($145 million with reissues/$900.3 million adjusted) for 12th place.
If you remove the reissues, a theoretical $885 million-plus total for Avengers: Endgame puts it behind only The Exorcist ($929 million adjusted), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($937 million), Doctor Zhivago ($1.118 billion adjusted), Jaws ($1.153 billion adjusted), The Ten Commandments ($1.18 billion adjusted), Titanic ($1.156 billion adjusted), E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial ($1.12 billion adjusted), The Sound of Music ($1.283 billion), Star Wars ($1.286 billion adjusted) and Gone with the Wind($1.802 billion adjusted). Worldwide is more complicated, but this weekend will be the one that determines whether Avengers 4 tops the raw $2.788 billion gross of Avatar. I thought it was pretty likely after its solid second Fri-Thurs frame, but it dropped hard overseas against Detective Pikachu. Let’s see how it fares against John Wick: Chapter 3.
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